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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The non-farm in June is unexpectedly strong, and the probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this month is "returning to zero"!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On July 4, early trading in Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.01. On Thursday, as strong U.S. employment data dispelled market expectations for the Fed's recent interest rate cut, the U.S. dollar index rose sharply before the U.S. session, then returned to above the 97 mark, and once rose to a day high of 97.42, and finally closed up 0.32% to 97.08; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.351%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.892%. Spot gold fell sharply, falling to $3311.65 during the session, falling more than $50 from the day high. Then it recovered some lost ground and finally closed down 0.94%, closing at $3325.50/oz. Although spot silver fell back, it rebounded sharply and finally closed up 0.78% to $36.82/oz. Under the cover of uncertainty, the two oils fell into the range. WTI crude oil fluctuated back and forth around $66, and finally closed down 0.58% at $66.23/barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.39% at $68.51/barrel.
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 97.01. The US dollar (USD) rose slightly on Thursday as stronger-than-expected non-farm employment data in June eased concerns about the labor market. The optimistic report helped the dollar get rid of years of lows, and traders reassessed the possibility of the Fed's rate cut in July. Technically, the US dollar index successfully closed above 50MA at 97.29, and it will move towards the nearest resistance range of 98.00–98.20.
On Friday, gold trading was around 3326.27. During the US Independence Day holiday on Friday, gold prices fluctuated narrowly in the early trading of the Asian market, and are currently trading around $3330. Affected by the unexpectedly strong non-farm employment data in June, gold prices fell nearly 1% on Thursday (July 3), and spot gold closed at $3325.87 per ounce. Strong employment data not only pushed up the yields of the US dollar and US Treasury, but also significantly weakened the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's early interest rate cut, making gold more attractive Decline. Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress passed the Trump administration’s massive tax cuts and spending bill (the “Big and US” bill), further injecting www.edoyoko.complex variables into the economy. Looking ahead, the gold market will be driven by multiple factors. First, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path remains key. If interest rate cuts rebound in September, gold may usher in a rebound. Second, the Trump administration’s fiscal and trade policies will continue to affect market sentiment. Tax cuts and tariff policies may push up inflation expectations in the short term, thus providing support for gold, but the strength of the dollar and the rise in U.S. Treasury yields may continue to pressure gold prices.
On Friday, crude oil trading was around 66.18. Oil prices fell slightly on Thursday, as investors fear U.S. tariffs could slow energy demand and major crude oil producers are expected to increase supply. OPEC+ is expected to agree to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day at a policy meeting this weekend, which also puts pressure on oil prices. U.S. crude oil inventories have also increased concerns about demand in the country.
①14:45France's May industrial output monthly rate
②15:00Swiss' June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate
③15:00Route briefing on the State Council's policy
④17:00Eurozone's May PPI monthly rate
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The non-agricultural policy in June is unexpectedly strong, and the probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this month is "returned to zero"!", which is carefully www.edoyoko.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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