Non-farm farms were unexpectedly strong in June, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this month was "returned to zero"!

On July 4, early trading in Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.01. On Thursday, as strong U.S. employment data dispelled market expectations for the Fed's recent interest rate cut, the U.S. dollar index rose sharply before the U.S. session, then returned to above the 97 mark, and once rose to a day high of 97.42, and finally closed up 0.32% to 97.08; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.351%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.892%. Spot gold fell sharply, falling to $3311.65 during the session, falling more than $50 from the day high. Then it recovered some lost ground and finally closed down 0.94%, closing at $3325.50/oz. Although spot silver fell back, it rebounded sharply and finally closed up 0.78% to $36.82/oz. Under the cover of uncertainty, the two oils fell into the range. WTI crude oil fluctuated back and forth around $66, and finally closed down 0.58% at $66.23/barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.39% at $68.51/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 97.01. The US dollar (USD) rose slightly on Thursday as stronger-than-expected non-farm employment data in June eased concerns about the labor market. The optimistic report helped the dollar get rid of years of lows, and traders reassessed the possibility of the Fed's rate cut in July. Technically, the US dollar index successfully closed above 50MA at 97.29, and it will move towards the nearest resistance range of 98.00–98.20.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1766. The euro fell against the dollar on Thursday after the U.S. released employment data for June, indicating that the Federal Reserve is not ready to reduce borrowing costs. Technically, if the euro/dollar remains below the 1.1750 level, it will move towards the support level of 1.1675–1.1690.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD was hovering around 1.3662. On Thursday, GBP/USD was hovering near the low end of the short-term decline, supported by selling pressure, forcing the US dollar to lower as the U.S. non-farm employment data (NFP) performed better than expected. The market was expected to see a lower-than-predicted result as this week’s ADP employment preview showed a sharp contraction in private sector employment, but a sharp increase in government education recruitment offset the decline in private sector employment. Technically, a break below the 1.3620 level would push GBP/USD to support at 1.3500–1.3520.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Friday, gold trading was around 3326.27. During the US Independence Day holiday on Friday, gold prices fluctuated narrowly in the early trading of the Asian market, and are currently trading around $3330. Affected by the unexpectedly strong non-farm employment data in June, gold prices fell nearly 1% on Thursday (July 3), and spot gold closed at $3325.87 per ounce. Strong employment data not only pushed up the yields of the US dollar and US Treasury, but also significantly weakened the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's early interest rate cut, making gold more attractive Decline. Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress passed the Trump administration’s massive tax cuts and spending bill (the “Big and US” bill), further injecting www.edoyoko.complex variables into the economy. Looking ahead, the gold market will be driven by multiple factors. First, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path remains key. If interest rate cuts rebound in September, gold may usher in a rebound. Second, the Trump administration’s fiscal and trade policies will continue to affect market sentiment. Tax cuts and tariff policies may push up inflation expectations in the short term, thus providing support for gold, but the strength of the dollar and the rise in U.S. Treasury yields may continue to pressure gold prices.

Technical: Gold's recent focus is on the breakthrough in the 3229-3419 range to obtain guidance, while the bulls are still weak under the 75% parallel line. "Gold tried to break through the next week, and the price reached 3432 before the decline.High point. The subsequent decline continued nearly 5.9% from its highs and rebounded this week after gaining support at 3247, the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% in May's rally. July has arrived and the stage has been set up. The market focus in the near future will be directly on whether prices can break through these six-week volatility ranges. Resistance levels were seen at a record closing high/May high of 3432-35 and needed a breakout/weekly closing above 3500 to mark the recovery of a wider uptrend. The subsequent resistance level is focused on the upper parallel line, and is currently close to around 3630. Breakthrough/closing below 3247 will threaten a larger pullback in the multi-year uptrend. Subsequent support is at 3121 near the May low, with the broader bullish invalid level remaining at 3000/31, and downward depletion/price turning point may occur if touched.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading was around 66.18. Oil prices fell slightly on Thursday, as investors fear U.S. tariffs could slow energy demand and major crude oil producers are expected to increase supply. OPEC+ is expected to agree to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day at a policy meeting this weekend, which also puts pressure on oil prices. U.S. crude oil inventories have also increased concerns about demand in the country.

Technical: After WTI crude oil futures broke through the key resistance level of US$65.55 yesterday, the price fell slightly today, which is a natural correction trend. $65.55 represents the upper limit of the short-term major sideways trading range. The decline is due to profit-taking and mitigating the obvious overbought situation on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), especially as these indicators start to show negative cross signals, which may temporarily limit the bullish momentum. However, the stability of the support near the 50-day moving average (EMA50) enhances the possibility of a stable and rebound, as this moving average forms an important dynamic support, making the upward trend still effective.

Forex market trading reminder on July 4, 2025

①14:45France's May industrial output monthly rate

②15:00Swiss' June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate

③15:00Route briefing on the State Council's policy

④17:00Eurozone's May PPI monthly rate

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The non-agricultural policy in June is unexpectedly strong, and the probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this month is "returned to zero"!", which is carefully www.edoyoko.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

In fact, responsibility is not helpless, it is not boring, it is as gorgeous as a rainbow. It is this colorful responsibility that has created a better life for us today. I will try my best to organize the article.