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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Market Review]: As tariffs become the focus again, risk preferences are gradually fading." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM Forex APP News - On Friday (July 4), investors are digesting the market trends of the past 24 hours as the United States celebrates Independence Day. The key employment report brought multiple surprises: the number of non-farm employment increased to 147,000, higher than the 110,000 expectations; the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. On the other hand, the average hourly wage fell slightly to 3.7%, hitting a new low in one year, consistent with the change in the "payment price" sub-item in the ISM service industry PMI survey. At the same time, after more than three months of negotiations, deliberations and behind-the-scenes pressure, the House of Representatives passed the "Beautiful Great Act" approved by the Senate with a 4 vote. While a handful of Republican Representatives expressed dissatisfaction with the Medicaid cuts, only two voted against the bill, which also raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. The approved bill has been sent to the White House and US President Trump is scheduled to sign it today local time. What does this mean for the Fed? Trump is outspoken about the passage of strong jobs data and budget bills, and his social media accounts are filled with exaggerated titles. However, a series of positive news, the decline in inflationary pressures brought by wage growth, while the labor market remains healthy, making the Fed's work slightly easier in the short term. Economic data has not shown weakness, which is likely to weaken the Fed’s dovish remarks, alleviate tensions within the Federal Open Market www.edoyoko.committee (FOMC) and, more importantly, relieve pressure on the July rate cut. The market has quickly adjusted its expectations, with the probability of a rate cut in the seven months of employment data being released at 21%, and now it has dropped to only 5%. Trump may soon restart his fierce rhetoric and accusations against Powell, but the data supports the Fed's current position. Therefore, most FOMC www.edoyoko.committee membersAt present, we can wait and see, pay attention to the trends in tariffs, and formulate strategies for the September meeting. Is Thursday's reversal www.edoyoko.completed? Unlike the budget bill that did not have a significant impact on the market, the release of U.S. economic data immediately had an impact. The dollar strengthened sharply across the board, and after the non-farm data was released, the euro fell by about a big point against the dollar (i.e. 1 cent). The US stock index climbed to a record high.
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