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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: The US dollar index hovers below 97, and Trump is about to send a letter to specify the tariff rate." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On July 7, early trading in the Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 96.95. Last Friday, the US dollar index fell back and fluctuated back and forth near the 97 mark, and finally closed down 0.07% to 96.93. Spot gold fluctuated upward, and once returned to $3,340 during the session, but failed to stabilize above this mark and finally closed up 0.35%, closing at $3,337.22/oz; spot silver finally closed up 0.25%, at $36.93/oz. The two oils fell as the market expected OPEC+ to increase production again. WTI crude oil fell sharply during the European session and once reached an intraday low of $65.24, and finally closed down 1.07% to $65.62 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.62% to $68.14 per barrel.
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 96.95. The trend of the US dollar index is driven by multiple fundamental factors. First, Trump's tariff remarks continue to ferment, and market concerns about the global trade prospects are intensifying. This week the Federal Reserve will release minutes of its last FOMC meeting, and the market is highly concerned about whether it sends out signals that it may cut interest rates in the future. Analysts pointed out that if the minutes are biased, it means that policymakers are cautious about the economic outlook, and the dollar may face pressure to pull back; on the contrary, if the need to maintain high interest rates is emphasized, it is expected to boost the dollar's strength. Although the United States has limited macro data next week, the non-farm employment data in June was strong and the unemployment rate fell, providing some support for the US dollar. Technically, the US dollar index has recently triedGet rid of annual lows but face resistance around 50MA. If the U.S. dollar index climbs above 50MA at 97.15, it will move towards the next resistance level 98.00–98.20.
On the Asian session on Monday, gold trading around 3324.28. For investors, the current sideways consolidation of gold may be a good opportunity to make a layout. In the short term, gold prices may fluctuate in the range of $3,250 to $3,456, but once new catalysts appear in geopolitical or macroeconomics, gold prices are expected to break through the highs and challenge $3,500 or even higher. In the long run, the U.S. debt crisis, the weakening of the dollar and potential inflationary pressure will continue to support the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven and value-preserving asset. Investors should closely monitor the progress of this week’s trade negotiations, minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decisions for the Australian and New Zealand Fed to seize investment opportunities in the gold market.
On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading around 66.37. OPEC+ eight core member states agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding the market expectations of 411,000 barrels. Oil prices fell slightly last Friday, with U.S. holiday trading calm, markets focused on the weekend's OPEC+ meeting and the possibility of member states' decision to increase production. Meanwhile, as the 90-day tariff moratorium is about to end, uncertainty in U.S. tariff policy has once again become the focus of people's attention.
①To be determined China's June foreign exchange reserves
②14:00 Germany's May seasonally adjusted industrial output monthly rate
③14:00 UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted housing price index monthly rate
④16:30 Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index
⑤17:00 Eurozone May retail sales monthly rate
⑥22:00 US June global supply chain pressure index
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