Gold stages a V-counter-counter! Popular candidates for Fed chairman openly call for interest rate cuts

On July 8, early trading in the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.32. On Monday, the U.S. President Trump announced that he would impose new tariffs on a series of countries including Japan and South Korea on August 1, the U.S. dollar index rose sharply, once rising to a day-to-day high of 97.65, and finally closed up 0.58% to 97.51. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.385%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.897%. Spot gold fell first and then rose, and fell below the $3,300 mark during the session, but then it rebounded strongly by nearly $40, and finally closed down 0.02%, closing at $3,336.51/ounce; spot silver finally closed down 0.43%, at $36.74/ounce. The two oil rebounded sharply as signs of strong demand offset concerns that OPEC+'s exceeding expectations in August and the possible new impact of U.S. tariffs. WTI crude oil rose more than 2% during the day, and once rushed above $67 during the session, and finally closed up 2.11% at $67.01/barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.65% at $69.02/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 97.32. The short-term trend of the US dollar index will rely heavily on the breakthrough situation of key technical positions and the pace of implementation of fundamental events. Market participants need to pay close attention to the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, economic data and the progress of external events to capture the potential signals of the market turning point. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index successfully closes above the 97.50 level, it will move towards the next resistance level 98.00–98.20.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1740. Rises due to weak dollar. Euro/dollar showed risk aversion sentiment due to escalating trade war, which fell sharply on Monday, and US President Trump began sending letters to some countries to impose tariffs. However, Reuters revealed that the EU (EU) will not receive letters from higher tariffs from the United States, which brought the euro/dollar back to above 1.1700 and recovered to the time Former exchange rate. Meanwhile, the U.S. economic schedule is blank on Monday and Tuesday. Traders are paying attention to the release of minutes of the Federal Open Market www.edoyoko.commission (FOMC) meeting in June. In the EU, the German Federal Statistics Office released a slight improvement in industrial production data for May. Technically, if the euro/dollar remains below the 1.1750 level, it will move towards the nearest support level 1.1675–1.1690.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3626. GBP/USD found support on Monday, pausing the short-term downward trend. GBP/USD fell on Monday, further downward corrections, increasing short-term losses, and GBP bulls took a breather. Although losses in early trading were controlled, a new round of tariff threats from US President Donald Trump has suppressed investors' risk appetite, restricted upward flows in the market and triggered Risk-averse sentiment towards the dollar. The economic data schedule for this week is relatively limited. Market attention will focus on the Trump administration’s trade war rhetoric, although the latest Fed meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday, expected to attract the attention of some traders to further evaluate the Fed’s proximity to rate cuts. Technically, if the pound/dollar returns above resistance at 1.3620–1.3640, it will move towards 50MA1.3685.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Tuesday, gold trading was around 3332.43. The gold market is in a www.edoyoko.complex environment with multiple factors intertwined. Trump's tariff policy and the turmoil in US stocks provide safe-haven support for gold, while the continued purchase of gold by the central bank consolidates its long-term value. However, the short-term strength of the US dollar and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policy may continue to limit the upward space of gold prices. In the short term, gold prices may fluctuate in the range of $3300 to $3400 per ounce, and investors need to pay close attention to the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and geopolitical dynamics. In addition, this trading day will also be released for the 1-year gold increase expectation of the US New York Fed in June and the 1-year inflation expectation of the US New York Fed in June. Investors also need to pay attention., and also pay attention to the performance of the RBA interest rate resolution.

Technical: The technical daily chart shows that after the gold price fell back at the high of $3,499, it has been running in a distinct symmetric triangle pattern, and the oscillation range gradually narrows, implying that the market is about to choose a direction. The middle rail of the Bollinger Band is located at the $3348.89 line. The price is suppressed by it for many consecutive days, and the short-term rebound momentum is limited. The current upper and lower rails of the Bollinger band are US$3416.80 and US$3280.98 respectively, indicating that the volatility is shrinking and is approaching a directional breakthrough. In terms of K-line pattern, the price has repeatedly tried the Bollinger band lower track but has not yet formed an effective break. Currently, the support level of US$3,250 is firm, and short-term support is further established; while US$3,400 has become a clear top resistance area, and whether or not it will determine the direction of the medium-term trend. In terms of MACD indicators, the DIFF line is bonded to the DEA line, and the bar chart maintains a negative value but attenuates, indicating that the bear momentum has slightly weakened, and the market is strong wait-and-see sentiment. RSI hovers around the 46.7 line, has not entered the oversold area, and also lacks clear rebound momentum, implying that it is still a consolidation market.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Tuesday, crude oil trading around 66.70. Oil prices rose nearly 2% on Monday as signs of strong demand offset concerns about the August increase in OPEC+ and the potential new impact of U.S. tariffs. Oil is under pressure as U.S. officials said they would postpone the start of tariff collection but failed to provide details of the change in tariff rates. Investors are concerned that higher tariffs may slow economic activity and oil demand. This trading day will also be released on the New York Fed's 1-year gold increase forecast in June and the New York Fed's 1-year inflation forecast in June. Investors also need to pay attention to it, and also pay attention to the performance of the RBA interest rate resolution.

Technical: Technically, oil prices have experienced a wave of fluctuations recently: rebounding from the low point of 57.00 to the high point of 78, and then falling to 64.00. The current price trend is relatively stable. Oil prices are in a long-term downward channel, but are still above the short-term upward trend line dating back to early May, with gains being suppressed by the 20-day moving average. The seller is testing the uptrend line support at the 65.00 position. If it falls below this level, oil prices will fall below 63.50, where the 50-day moving average is; further down, 60.00 will become the focus. If the uptrend line support is effective, the buyer will try to break through 67.80 where the 20-day moving average is located, and then hit 68.70 where the 100-day moving average is located. If this level can be broken and the 70.00 integer mark, the April high of 72.00 will enter the field of vision.

Forex market trading reminder on July 8, 2025

12:30 RBA announces interest rate resolution

13:30 RBA Chairman Brock holds a press conference

14:00 German May seasonal adjustment trade account

14:45 France May trade account

18:00 US June NFIB Small Business Confidence Index

23:00 US June New York Fed 1-year inflation expectation

The next day 00:00 EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook report

The next day 04:30 US next day to July 4 API crude oil inventories

The above content is about "【XM Group]: Gold stages a V-counter-trade! The popular candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman publicly calls for interest rate cuts” is carefully www.edoyoko.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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