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The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates faces a complex situation. Analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 8

Post time: 2025-07-08 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Group】: The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates is facing a www.edoyoko.complex situation, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 8." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose and fell mixed, Dow futures fell 0.02%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.29%. The German DAX index rose 0.31%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.18%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.15%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.05%.

2. Market news interpretation

The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates faces a www.edoyoko.complex situation

⑴ Recent national and global surveys on corporate executives showed that corporate leaders expect demand to weaken while planning to raise prices, which increases the www.edoyoko.complexity of Federal Reserve’s decisions. ⑵ Changing tariff policies have increased uncertainty, corporate confidence has been frustrated, supply chain restructuring, and the desire to rely on the U.S. market or production has declined. ⑶Feder officials are worried that raising prices by www.edoyoko.companies may trigger more sustained inflation, while some officials believe tariffs may only lead to a one-time price shock and will not trigger sustained inflation. ⑷ Brent Meyer, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, pointed out that price pressures may have exceeded the scope directly affected by tariffs. ⑸Dun and Bradstreet’s survey of 10,000 www.edoyoko.companies around the world shows that corporate confidence has declined, supply chain resilience is doubtful, and they are skeptical about the effect of the central bank’s interest rate cut. ⑹Feder Chairman Powell said that despite improvements in corporate confidence, it is still necessary to decide how to deal with tariffs that exceed expectations. ⑺Investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates from September, but there are differences within the Fed on the timing of the rate cut, and some officials are expected to release it until 2026.Luck of monetary policy. ⑻JP Morgan Research Institute pointed out that medium-sized enterprises face high tariffs and need to decide whether to pass on the tariffs to consumers or digest them by reducing profits and cutting costs. ⑼ Flag chief global economist Nathan Sheets said that tariffs will have a stagflation impact on the US economy, pushing the economy to "go toward the direction of rising inflation and slowing growth."

Trump announced that it would impose a 36% tariff on Thailand. The Thai Treasury Secretary: It will fight to the end and is formulating a backup plan. US President Trump said on the 7th that he would impose a 36% tariff on Thailand's imported products from August 1. According to Reuters, Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Picha posted on social platform X on the 8th that the negotiating team has been fighting and will continue to fight. They will persist in fighting to the end and win the best solution for Thailand.

Hungary was hit by a strong storm and there were still more than 50,000 households out of power.

On the 8th local time, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban said on social media that the strong storm on the 7th had a serious impact on the country. More than 360,000 households had power outages on that day. After overnight repairs, the number of households affected by the power outage has been reduced to more than 50,000. In addition, public transportation in many parts of Hungary is almost www.edoyoko.completely paralyzed, and the most severely affected is railway transportation. Minister of Construction and Transport Lazar Yanosh said that there had not been such a huge storm before and it was expected that it would take several days to fully recover.

The EU officially approved Bulgaria's use of the euro from January 1, 2026

On July 8, local time, the EU Council issued an announcement stating that the finance ministers of the EU member states passed the last three laws and regulations required by Bulgaria to introduce the euro on January 1, 2026 on the same day. This marks Bulgaria becoming the 21st member of the euro zone and the process of using the euro from 2026 has been www.edoyoko.completed. The announcement stated that one of the three laws and regulations sets the exchange rate between the euro and Bulgarian Lev at 1.95,583 Lev to 1 euro.

Saudi Arabia's short-term and long-term game through OPEC+ production increase strategy

⑴OPEC+ plans to increase oil production target by 2.5 million barrels per day from April to September. Saudi Arabia has a large amount of idle production capacity, while other member states are close to full capacity. ⑵ Saudi Arabia's share of global oil production fell from an average of 13% over the past three decades to 11% in 2024. ⑶ Saudi Arabia hopes to accelerate OPEC+ production increase plan, on the one hand, re-establish its discipline in the group and on the other hand, increase its market share. ⑷ Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports account for global maritime exports, down from an average of 18% in the past decade to 15% in 2024. Saudi Arabia hopes to reverse this trend and consolidate its dominance in the global oil market. ⑸ Saudi Arabia's oil production in June was about 9.55 million barrels per day. According to the OPEC+ agreement, Saudi Arabia still has room for production increase by 200,000 barrels per day before August, and can use nearly 3 million barrels per day of idle production capacity within 90 days. ⑹Saudi is the only capable of in the www.edoyoko.coming quarters except the UAEOPEC+ oil-producing countries that significantly increase production. ⑺While increasing production may further lower crude oil prices, Saudi Arabia may be able to meet future demands better than its www.edoyoko.competitors with its idle production capacity and low cost advantages. ⑻ Saudi Arabia’s long-term bet is that while U.S. shale oil producers may quickly respond to Saudi Arabia’s strategy, the impact of other industries will take longer to manifest. ⑼Saudi may further accelerate the OPEC+ production cut plan in the www.edoyoko.coming months to increase its own production while putting more pressure on its www.edoyoko.competitors.

Trade tensions ease German Treasury yields climbed

⑴Germany 10-year Treasury yields rose to 2.65%, a new high since May 23, as trade tensions eased. Earlier, it was reported that the United States proposed to the EU that it would maintain a 10% benchmark tariff, but exempt it from sensitive industries such as aircraft and spirits. ⑵ However, Washington did not say it would expand the exemption to politically sensitive industries such as automobiles, steel, aluminum or pharmaceuticals, as required by the EU. ⑶ The EU plans to reach a preliminary agreement this week to ensure that the 10% tariff level is maintained after the August 1 deadline, while continuing negotiations on a permanent agreement. ⑷In terms of economic data, Germany's import and export decline in May exceeded expectations, but industrial output performed better than expected. ⑸ German Central Bank President Joachim Nager warned that U.S. tariffs may have the worst impact on Germany in 2025-2026, but the economy is expected to recover from 2026, as government spending and debt brake reforms will provide support. ⑹Nagl expects that these measures may drive economic growth by 0.75 percentage points by 2027.

Australia inflation risks remain lingering. The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged.

⑴RBA Chairman Michel Brock said at a press conference after today's interest rate resolution that although Australia's inflation has been within the target range for two consecutive quarters, high unit labour costs and weak productivity may drive inflation beyond expectations, and the risks still exist. ⑵Bullock stressed that before further action is taken, more data support is needed, including the June quarter CPI, labor market updates and global developments. ⑶ In this interest rate resolution, board members remained consistent in policy direction, but had differences in timing choices - 6 members voted to keep interest rates unchanged, while 3 members cut interest rates due to weak data and global risk tendency. ⑷Block pointed out that previous concerns about a severe global economic recession caused by trade tensions have eased, but the international environment remains fragile. ⑸ Faced with global uncertainty, the RBA remains cautious and adheres to its inflation and employment goals.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.1716, an increase of 0.08%. Before New York City, the (Euro-USD) price fell at the recent intraday level after retesting the key resistance of 1.1745 while reaching the EMA50 resistance, putting it under strong negative pressure to buckUnderstanding this pressure, especially to reach an exaggerated overbought level www.edoyoko.compared to price trends (RSI), opens the way for more downward trends.

The Federal Reserves decision to cut interest rates faces a www.edoyoko.complex situation. Analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 8(图1)

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3578, a drop of 0.17%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price rose on the last trading day after reaching our recommended support target of 3590, gaining positive momentum that affects its stability, especially after reaching oversold levels, (RSI).

The Federal Reserves decision to cut interest rates faces a www.edoyoko.complex situation. Analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 8(图2)

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3327.02, a drop of 0.27%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price fell to a low in the last intraday trading after it successfully unloaded some obvious overbought conditions on (RSI) in early trading, which allowed it to easily achieve new gains, and it relies on support from the EMA50 as it is influenced by the positive intraday technology pattern, represented by the wedge-shaped decline model, providing positive momentum to enable it to rise in the intraday.

The Federal Reserves decision to cut interest rates faces a www.edoyoko.complex situation. Analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 8(图3)

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 36.613, a drop of 0.39%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price fluctuated at the level of the most recent trading day, and positive pressure from trading above the EMA50 continued to exist, dominated by the main bullish trend, and traded along a small slash on a short-term basis, which made this positive situation dynamically stable. On the other hand, we noticed a negative overlapping signal after reaching the overbought level, which slowed the upward track due to the need to unload some overbought conditions.

The Federal Reserves decision to cut interest rates faces a www.edoyoko.complex situation. Analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 8(图4)

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 67.860, a drop of 0.07%. Before New York, (crude oil) prices rose slightly at recent intraday levels, and volatile trading helped it get rid of (RSI) overbought conditions that prevented its steady rise above key support at $66.00, taking advantage of the dynamic support represented by its stability above the EMA50.

The Federal Reserves decision to cut interest rates faces a www.edoyoko.complex situation. Analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 8(图5)

4. Institutional View

JP Morgan Chase: U.S. Debt CustomersThe household survey shows that both long and short proportions have increased

JPMorgan Chase’s U.S. Treasury Client Survey showed that the proportion of long positions increased by 3 percentage points in the week ended July 7, while the short positions rose by 1 percentage point, and a neutral decrease of 4 percentage points. The survey shows that the proportion of www.edoyoko.com longs hit a new high since June 16, and the proportion of shorts hit the highest level since June 9

HSBC: The focus of the oil market returns to fundamentals, and the geopolitical influence weakens

⑴ HSBC Global Research pointed out that with the brief surge in oil prices caused by the Iran-Israel war, the market focus has returned to fundamentals, and the impact of geopolitical concerns is weakening. ⑵HSBC expects that the impact of any tension in the Middle East on oil prices will gradually weaken in the future, and the strategies, tariffs and summer oil demand of major oil-producing countries will be the dominant factors. ⑶ The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies decided to increase oil production by nearly 550,000 barrels per day, which was unexpected to the market. HSBC expects that at its next meeting on August 3, the group will announce another 550,000 barrels per day in September, and by the end of September, the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day will be fully restored. ⑷ However, since member countries have already produced more than quota, actual output growth may lag behind quota. HSBC notes that summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere and the Middle East is currently absorbing additional OPEC+ oil. ⑸ According to HSBC's updated supply and demand forecast, the oil market surplus will rise sharply to more than 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and approach 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026, which will increase the risk of downward oil prices.

The above content is all about "[XM Group]: The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates is facing a www.edoyoko.complex situation. Analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 8" was carefully www.edoyoko.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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